Today's read: Cloud giants are spending close to $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year. The specific bottlenecks are HBM memory and CoWoS packaging. The under priced trades sit one layer down: packaging companies, custom chip designers, and power infrastructure.
Three things changed this month: TSMC raised its full year forecast and capex; Meta signed a 1 gigawatt custom chip deal with Broadcom; and Micron's memory is sold out through 2027.
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How to read this dashboard. The animated SVG charts show where pressure is building in the AI semiconductor stack. Green marks positive surprise, red marks negative, amber marks watch closely.
The macro setup
Cloud giants are spending about $700B on AI in 2026
Combined planned capex from Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft. Most of the increase is direct AI infrastructure spending.
Plain English: These four companies are committing an extraordinary amount of capital to chips, servers, and the buildings to house them.
-> The buildout is now debt financed, so free cash flow prints become sector catalysts.
Memory is sold out through 2026
HBM supply status by year. Tight supply creates pricing power for memory vendors.
Plain English: HBM memory is the bottleneck that keeps AI accelerators fed with data.
-> Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung keep pricing power.
Advanced packaging ramps nearly 4x
TSMC CoWoS capacity measured as wafer starts per month.
Plain English: CoWoS is the assembly line that finishes advanced AI chips.
-> Amkor and ASE pick up overflow if demand keeps running hot.
Compute, foundry, and memory
Nvidia NVDA
$0.00(4/27 close)
Catalyst: earnings May 20 Position: AI chip leader with most CoWoS capacity reserved
Why this matters: Nvidia is the sector benchmark. The next earnings print anchors the whole chip stack.
TSMC TSM
$0.00+0.20%
FY26 guide: raised Capex: $52B to $56B
Why this matters: TSMC manufactures the advanced chips and controls the most important packaging ramp.
Micron MU
$0.00+4.63%
HBM3E: sold out cal 2026 Supply tightness: through 2027 to 2028
Why this matters: When all output is spoken for, memory makers gain pricing leverage.
Stack translation
Foundry
TSMC capex raise means 2nm and advanced packaging remain core AI substrates.
TSM · AMAT · LRCX · KLAC
Memory
HBM supply is sold out through 2026 and tight beyond that.
MU · SK Hynix · Samsung
Packaging
CoWoS remains the gating constraint for frontier AI accelerators.
AMKR · ASX
Power
The bottleneck moves from chips to electricity as AI campuses scale.